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Lotus 1-2-3, Apple Macintosh, and Netscape web browser–three infamous products that changed the world then missed the boat.

The Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet almost single-handedly turned the IBM PC from a hobbyist’s tinker toy into a serious business tool.  The Apple Macintosh introduced the graphical user interface and brought vivid color to a green-screen world.  And of course the Netscape browser launched the World Wide Web and instant global communications, ultimately landing you here to read this blog. 

Looking back at the revolutions caused by these products, one might expect them to dominate the technology landscape today.  Not coincidentally, all three products were derailed in their efforts by the marketing monster known as Microsoft.  But in spite of its best efforts with Windows Media Center, Microsoft has little to do with Tivo’s struggle.
 

Tivo Changes the World

The Tivo digital video recorder (DVR) replaced the VCR and its klunky poor-quality tapes and slow serial access.  For the first time, we could watch television on our terms, pause live TV to answer the door or visit the loo, and of course skip through annoying commercials.

When a product name becomes a verb, you know it has made a real impression on people.  And so it is with Tivo… you don’t record a show, you “Tivo it.”  Many of my friends have non-Tivo DVR’s, but they call them “Tivo” anyway.  Tivo is an obsession with its million of fans and a must-have for any busy person who watches TV.

Tivo Misses the Boat

Soon I will be one of many Tivo devotees who will defect this year to rival DVR’s, typically provided for much lower cost by satellite and cable TV companies.  To access DirectTV’s 140 high-definition channels, I must “upgrade” from Tivo to the Hughes DVR.

Unfortunately, Tivo may be a victim of its own genius and success.  True innovation often comes from the small startup who is lean enough to launch a market but lacks the heft to own it.  Or as stated in “Tivo, We Hardly Knew Ye (Sorry fans, but it’s destined for the ash heap of history)”:

You can ascribe Tivo’s struggles to the business axiom known as “first-mover disadvantage.” Technology pioneers typically get steamrollered, then look on helplessly from the sidelines as a bunch of Johnny-come-latelies make billions.  First movers, the theory goes, are too smart for their own good, churning out gizmos that are too expensive or too complex for the average consumer’s taste.

Four Things Tivo Can do to Win

I will always be a Tivo fan hoping for its success, regardless of whether I actually own a Tivo.  So here are my recommendations how Tivo can improve and perhaps become the “iPod of DVR’s”:
 

1. No More Waiting

When Tivo introduced the first mass-market DVR in 1999, one could easily forgive its warts in return for the new-found freedom it delivered to TV viewers.  The first Tivo was essentially an underpowered Linux box running Tivo’s proprietary software.  Many of us popped open the Tivo to add a big hard drive, and used our remotes to program Tivo-supported hacks such as 30-second commercial skip.

Fast forward to 2008 when PCs are measured in gigahertz and gigabytes.  And yet the high-def Tivos remain stuck in 1999.  The simple act of recording a show can sometimes take minutes while the Tivo hard drive churns away.  Tivo needs to engineer the wait out of its system.  It can be done, just look at the other DVR’s.

2. Squash the Bug

The “Tivo bug” and floating background looked cute in 1999, but in 2008–not so much.  The next Tivo interface needs to be more like a Web site, with different themes, customization, and a more interactive display.

3. Fix Britney

Britney Spears lip-syncing is nothing new, but not when it’s the result of Tivo’s persistent audio sync problems.  Of course no system is perfect, but Tivo suffers from a few too many glitches such as Season Passes not being recorded properly, random reboots, and confused To Do lists.  I’ve lost a Heroes, CSI and two Survivor episodes this season due to Tivo brain freeze.

4. Hookup with my Provider

I want my Tivo, but I want the 140 HD channels more.  Tivo must easily plug into my DirecTV (or Dish or Comcast) system for a reasonable fee.  There is some smoke about new deals with DirecTV and others, but no news and no fire.

Missed this Boat, Catch the Next?

Of the three revolutionary products discussed at the beginning of this article, only the Apple Macintosh still has a legitimate chance at success.  The Mac’s boat is floating again, buoyed by the iPod’s runaway success and those catchy “Hello, I’m a Mac” commercials. 

But second chances are rare in the technology business, and the Mac still suffers from some of its original problems such as proprietary hardware and the Windows juggernaut for a competitor.  (Actually, Linux or the inevitable Google OS have a better chance than Mac to dethrone Windows.)

But what about Tivo?  Is the Tivo soon to be history?  Or can Tivo ultimately reap the reward it deserves as pioneer in the DVR market?  I believe yes, if Tivo can transform as described above.  Comment below with your thoughts.

Beyonce Here I Come

Beyonce has been luring me for months with her sexy DirecTV commercials to upgrade my DVR.  A man can resist Beyonce for only so long.  So it looks like I’ll be leaving my beloved Tivo for another DVR, but I’ll still call it “Tivo.”
 

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4. Software Markets Compared
5. Circuit City Rebooted

Tags: Apple, DirecTV, Hughes, Lotus, Macintosh, Microsoft, Netscape, Tivo