Comments on: Rise of the Machines http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/ Software Development Topics Fri, 30 Jul 2010 11:51:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Storm's A Comin' http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/comment-page-1/#comment-25850 Storm's A Comin' Wed, 10 Dec 2008 19:51:32 +0000 http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/#comment-25850 Rise of the machines will happen also sooner than a century away. Why? Not because the machines will rise up. But because someone will create a militarized robot weapon, and it will get out of hand and wipe us out. Probably more like 2040. Rise of the machines will happen also sooner than a century away. Why? Not because the machines will rise up. But because someone will create a militarized robot weapon, and it will get out of hand and wipe us out. Probably more like 2040.

]]> By: Jonas http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/comment-page-1/#comment-25803 Jonas Wed, 10 Dec 2008 15:37:34 +0000 http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/#comment-25803 Actually Ray Kurzweil is a genius, but he's like most academics in that he doesn't understand that the real world behaves very differently than the controlled environment of a classroom or laboratory. History has shown that technological soothsayers overestimate the big changes (e.g., flying cars in Blade Runner, commercial space trips to the Moon in 2001 Space Odyssey) while totally missing the more subtle changes (like LCD screens today vs. the tube screens shown in 2001). This is because humans, while highly adaptable, are still rather set in our ways. Even if we could have flying cars, we're not going to anytime soon because there are too many potential problems (accidents, for one). So while I believe that computers will be as powerful as the human brain in a couple of decades -- when compared in terms of raw computing power -- it will likely be another century before computers can think and reason and plot like humans. So I think I and my kids are safe, but my great-great-great-grandkids better watch out! Actually Ray Kurzweil is a genius, but he’s like most academics in that he doesn’t understand that the real world behaves very differently than the controlled environment of a classroom or laboratory.

History has shown that technological soothsayers overestimate the big changes (e.g., flying cars in Blade Runner, commercial space trips to the Moon in 2001 Space Odyssey) while totally missing the more subtle changes (like LCD screens today vs. the tube screens shown in 2001). This is because humans, while highly adaptable, are still rather set in our ways. Even if we could have flying cars, we’re not going to anytime soon because there are too many potential problems (accidents, for one).

So while I believe that computers will be as powerful as the human brain in a couple of decades — when compared in terms of raw computing power — it will likely be another century before computers can think and reason and plot like humans. So I think I and my kids are safe, but my great-great-great-grandkids better watch out!

]]> By: Green Williams http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/comment-page-1/#comment-25666 Green Williams Tue, 09 Dec 2008 21:09:04 +0000 http://www.devtopics.com/rise-of-the-machines/#comment-25666 Ray Kurzweil is a fruitcake who is just cruising for a bruising. He did not learn from the 1960's when AI researchers claim that AI would advance to a state where computer can replace lawyers, perform surgery and plan human-free space-missions and negotiate permanent between in the middle east. They were so wrong and lost so much public-confidence (aka research-funding potential) that a many research funding agencies would not fund the field sufficiently- like in England. Someone need to teach Ray about the limits of Moore's law, the complexity of the human brain, NP-complete and other real-world circumstances that prevent day-dreams from meeting reality. Ray Kurzweil is a fruitcake who is just cruising for a bruising. He did not learn from the 1960’s when AI researchers claim that AI would advance to a state where computer can replace lawyers, perform surgery and plan human-free space-missions and negotiate permanent between in the middle east. They were so wrong and lost so much public-confidence (aka research-funding potential) that a many research funding agencies would not fund the field sufficiently- like in England. Someone need to teach Ray about the limits of Moore’s law, the complexity of the human brain, NP-complete and other real-world circumstances that prevent day-dreams from meeting reality.

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